he Atlanta Falcons’ 2025 NFL schedule features a mix of divisional rivals, interconference matchups, and high-profile prime-time games, with five prime-time appearances and an international game in Berlin.
Below is a week-by-week breakdown of their opponents, based on the official schedule, along with an analysis of whether the Falcons are likely to win or lose each game and the reasoning behind each prediction.
The analysis considers the Falcons’ strengths (e.g., offensive firepower with Michael Penix Jr., Drake London, and Bijan Robinson; improved defense with draft picks like Jalon Walker and James Pearce Jr.), weaknesses (e.g., unproven quarterback in Penix, defensive pass rush concerns), and opponent dynamics (e.g., 2024 performance, roster changes, and coaching).
The Falcons’ 2025 strength of schedule is the fourth-easiest in the NFL, per Sharp Football Analysis, with opponents having a .478 winning percentage from 2024, which could favor Atlanta.
With that being said, don’t expect Penix to change who he is.
Atlanta Falcons 2025 Schedule and Game-by-Game Analysis
As the full-time starter, Penix’s ability to manage games and avoid turnovers is critical. His 2024 cameo (1-2 record) showed promise but inconsistency.
With elite weapons like London, Robinson, and Pitts, he has the tools to succeed, but his inexperience against top defenses (e.g., Bills, 49ers) could lead to losses
Week 1: vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Home, Sept. 7, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Prediction: Win
Analysis: The Falcons open with a divisional rival at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Atlanta swept Tampa Bay in 2024, including a record-setting 509-yard passing game by Kirk Cousins, showing offensive dominance. While the Buccaneers won the NFC South in 2024 and remain favorites, their roster faces questions with potential free-agent departures and an aging core.
Michael Penix Jr., now the starter, benefits from home-field advantage and offensive weapons like Bijan Robinson and Drake London.
The Falcons’ improved defense, with rookies Jalon Walker and James Pearce Jr., should pressure Baker Mayfield, who struggled against Atlanta’s aggressive schemes last season. A fired-up Atlanta starts 1-0 in a close game, leveraging early-season optimism and divisional familiarity.
Week 2: at Minnesota Vikings (Away, Sept. 14, Sunday Night Football, 8:20 p.m. ET)
Prediction: Loss
Analysis: Facing the Vikings in primetime on the road is a tough early test. Minnesota, a second-place finisher in the NFC North in 2024, boasts a potent offense led by Justin Jefferson and a defense that ranked top-10 in points allowed last season.
The Vikings’ home-field advantage at U.S. Bank Stadium and their experience in primetime games tilt the scales. Penix, still adjusting as a starter, may struggle against Brian Flores’ blitz-heavy scheme, especially with Atlanta’s offensive line facing pressure. The Falcons’ defense, while improved, may not contain Minnesota’s balanced attack. Atlanta keeps it competitive but falls short, dropping to 1-1.
Week 3: at Carolina Panthers (Away, Sept. 21, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Prediction: Win
Analysis: The Panthers, a perennial NFC South bottom-dweller, are still rebuilding under Dave Canales. Despite splitting the season series with Atlanta since 2020, Carolina’s offense lacks the firepower to match the Falcons’ skill players. Atlanta’s defense, bolstered by versatile linebacker Jalon Walker, should handle Carolina’s young quarterback (likely Bryce Young or a rookie) and limit their run game. Penix exploits a weak Panthers secondary, and Bijan Robinson dominates on the ground. Even on the road, Atlanta’s superior talent and coaching edge secures a 2-1 record.
Week 4: vs. Washington Commanders (Home, Sept. 28, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Prediction: Loss
Analysis: The Commanders, second-place finishers in the NFC East in 2024, are a rising team with a dynamic offense led by Jayden Daniels and a stout defense. Washington’s ability to control the ground game and pressure quarterbacks poses problems for Atlanta’s inconsistent offensive line. Penix may struggle against Dan Quinn’s aggressive defense, especially if the Falcons’ pass protection falters. At home, Atlanta keeps it close, but Washington’s momentum and defensive playmaking steal a tight game, dropping the Falcons to 2-2.
Week 5: at Arizona Cardinals (Away, Oct. 5, 4:05 p.m. ET)
Prediction: Win
Analysis: The Cardinals are improving but remain a middle-tier NFC West team. Kyler Murray’s dual-threat ability is a challenge, but Atlanta’s defense, with new edge rushers like James Pearce Jr., can contain him if they maintain discipline. The Falcons’ offense, with Zac Robinson’s scheme tailored to Penix, exploits Arizona’s inconsistent secondary. Playing in Arizona is less daunting than other road venues, and Atlanta’s talent edge prevails in a high-scoring affair, improving to 3-2.
Week 6: vs. Buffalo Bills (Home, Oct. 12, Monday Night Football, 8:15 p.m. ET)
Prediction: Loss
Analysis: The Bills, an AFC East powerhouse, bring Josh Allen and a top-tier offense to Atlanta. Buffalo’s ability to exploit defensive weaknesses, especially in the secondary, challenges the Falcons’ young defensive backs. Penix faces a tough test against a Bills defense that ranked top-10 in sacks in 2024. Even with the home crowd, Atlanta struggles to match Buffalo’s firepower and experience in primetime, falling to 3-3 in a lopsided loss.
Week 7: at San Francisco 49ers (Away, Oct. 19, Sunday Night Football, 8:20 p.m. ET)
Prediction: Loss
Analysis: The 49ers, despite occasional inconsistency, remain NFC contenders with Kyle Shanahan’s offensive genius and a strong front seven. Playing in Levi’s Stadium on primetime is a daunting task for Penix, who may face relentless pressure from Nick Bosa and company. Atlanta’s defense struggles to stop San Francisco’s run game and play-action passing. Raheem Morris, a former 49ers assistant, keeps it respectable, but the Falcons drop to 3-4.
Week 8: vs. Miami Dolphins (Home, Oct. 26, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Prediction: Win
Analysis: The Dolphins’ high-octane offense, led by Tua Tagovailoa, relies on speed, but their 2024 season showed vulnerabilities against physical defenses. Atlanta’s home advantage and improving defensive front, with Matthew Judon and rookies, disrupt Miami’s rhythm. Penix, gaining confidence, connects with Drake London against a Dolphins secondary that ranked mid-tier in 2024. The Falcons’ balanced attack secures a 4-4 record in a shootout.
Week 9: at New England Patriots (Away, Nov. 2, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Prediction: Win
Analysis: The Patriots, under Mike Vrabel in 2025, are rebuilding with a rookie quarterback or journeyman starter. New England’s defense is tough, but their offense lacks playmakers to exploit Atlanta’s secondary. Penix manages the game well, leaning on Bijan Robinson to control the clock. The Falcons’ pass rush, with Pearce and Walker, overwhelms New England’s offensive line, leading to a 5-4 record with a low-scoring road win.
Week 10: at Indianapolis Colts (Away, Nov. 9, Berlin, Germany, 9:30 a.m. ET)
Prediction: Win
Analysis: The international game pits Atlanta against a Colts team with quarterback uncertainty (Anthony Richardson vs. Daniel Jones). The neutral site levels the playing field, and Atlanta’s offense, with Penix’s growing poise, exploits Indy’s middling defense. The Falcons’ defensive additions contain Indy’s run-heavy approach. Atlanta’s preparation for the Berlin trip, as shown in their 2024 London game, gives them an edge, improving to 6-4.
Week 11: Bye Week
Analysis: The early bye (earliest since 2017) allows Atlanta to rest and refine their game plan, critical for Penix’s development and defensive adjustments under Jeff Ulbrich.
Week 12: vs. New Orleans Saints (Home, Nov. 23, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Prediction: Win
Analysis: The Saints, in rebuild mode with young quarterbacks like Spencer Rattler or Tyler Shough, are vulnerable. Atlanta’s home dominance against New Orleans (4-2 in recent years) continues, with Penix outplaying the Saints’ inexperienced signal-caller. The Falcons’ defense feasts on a depleted Saints offense, and Robinson runs wild, pushing Atlanta to 7-4.
Week 13: at New York Jets (Away, Nov. 30, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Prediction: Loss
Analysis: The Jets, with Justin Fields at quarterback, present a dual-threat challenge. New York’s elite defense, led by Sauce Gardner, stifles Penix and forces turnovers. Atlanta’s pass rush struggles against Fields’ mobility, and the hostile MetLife Stadium environment rattles the young Falcons. Despite a valiant effort, Atlanta falls to 7-5.
Week 14: vs. Carolina Panthers (Home, Dec. 7, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Prediction: Win
Analysis: The second matchup with Carolina is a must-win at home. The Panthers’ lack of offensive firepower and poor road performance play into Atlanta’s hands. Penix, now comfortable in the system, dissects Carolina’s defense, while the Falcons’ front seven shuts down the run. Atlanta cruises to 8-5, solidifying their divisional standing.
Week 15: at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Away, Dec. 11, Thursday Night Football, 8:15 p.m. ET)
Prediction: Loss
Analysis: The rematch in Tampa is critical for NFC South positioning. The Buccaneers, motivated by their Week 1 loss, lean on home-field advantage and a veteran roster. Baker Mayfield exploits Atlanta’s secondary, and Tampa’s defense pressures Penix on a short week. The Falcons fight hard but drop to 8-6 in a tight divisional battle.
Week 16: vs. Seattle Seahawks (Home, Dec. 21, 4:25 p.m. ET)
Prediction: Win
Analysis: Seattle, with Sam Darnold at quarterback, is a middle-tier NFC West team. Atlanta’s home advantage and defensive improvements neutralize Seattle’s passing attack. Penix, familiar with Darnold from his 2024 Vikings performance, avoids mistakes, and the Falcons’ run game controls the clock. Atlanta moves to 9-6, keeping playoff hopes alive.
Week 17: vs. Los Angeles Rams (Home, Dec. 29, Monday Night Football, 8:15 p.m. ET)
Prediction: Win
Analysis: This primetime matchup pits Raheem Morris and Zac Robinson against their former team. The Rams, led by Sean McVay, are formidable, but their 2024 road struggles (5-4 away) give Atlanta an edge. Penix connects with London and Kyle Pitts against a Rams secondary that ranked 20th in pass defense. The Falcons’ pass rush disrupts Matthew Stafford, securing a 10-6 record in an emotional win.
Week 18: at New Orleans Saints (Away, Jan. 3/4, TBD)
Prediction: Win
Analysis: The season finale in New Orleans could decide the NFC South. The Saints, likely out of playoff contention, lack the firepower to match Atlanta’s offense. Penix, with a full season of experience, outshines New Orleans’ quarterback, and the Falcons’ defense dominates. Atlanta finishes 11-6, potentially clinching the division or a wild-card spot.
How Will the Falcons’ Season End Up?
- Predicted Record: 11-6
- Wins (11): vs. Tampa Bay (Week 1), at Carolina (Week 3), at Arizona (Week 5), vs. Miami (Week 8), at New England (Week 9), at Indianapolis (Week 10), vs. New Orleans (Week 12), vs. Carolina (Week 14), vs. Seattle (Week 16), vs. Los Angeles (Week 17), at New Orleans (Week 18).
- Losses (6): at Minnesota (Week 2), vs. Washington (Week 4), vs. Buffalo (Week 6), at San Francisco (Week 7), at New York Jets (Week 13), at Tampa Bay (Week 15).
- Playoff Outlook: An 11-6 record likely secures the NFC South title, given Tampa Bay’s challenges and the weak division, or at least a wild-card spot. The Falcons’ favorable strength of schedule, offensive talent, and defensive upgrades support a playoff return after a seven-year drought.
Final Word
Can the Falcons win it all this year? It all depends on a lot of factors, including injuries, Penix’s maturity and the defense’s ability to turn the ball over.
The Falcons ranked 31st in sacks and 23rd in total defense in 2024, leading to Jimmy Lake’s firing. Jeff Ulbrich’s scheme, paired with draft picks Jalon Walker, James Pearce Jr., and Xavier Watts, aims to boost the pass rush and secondary. Success against mobile quarterbacks (e.g., Fields, Murray) and strong offenses (e.g., Buffalo, Miami) will determine their ceiling.